Monday, 28 April 2008

Celestial Nutrifood vs Soy bean price

Saw the following section in CIMB report.

"China F&B Sector - No sight of near-term reprieve"

Stubbornly high commodity prices
The prices of agricultural commodities such as soybeans and corn continue to climb in 2008 despite the Chinese government’s export controls and ban on biofuel plants. Soybean prices have rebounded to Rmb5,322/tonne after briefly dipping below Rmb5,000/tonne in early April following the release of a US government forecast calling for an 18% increase in US soybean plantings in 2008.

Preferred picks are Celestial and China Fishery. Celestial (CENU SP, Outperform,
S$0.735, target S$1.20) is trading at undemanding valuations despite its intact growth
drivers. Management has cushioned the impact of margin compression by raising ASPs.

If I look at current Celestial share price of 0.72 vs PE 5.5x, it is very attractive. However, issues remained and market has persistently reluctant to give it a better valuation. Even though the business has actually grown a lot during these few years. They emerged from a pure consumer play to one with industrial product to cushion the earning. I think it is only for deep value patient investor to wait for the current commodity storm to be over.

Risk: Persistent high soya bean price which erode the earning
Catalyst: Raising ASP gradually, fall in soya bean price, rolling out of more product and higher factory utilisation.

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