In this weekend news, the price of rice has increased substantially recently. The commodity madness finally hit the rice, the food staple of Asia people. The risk is high, because this is one of the basic item in people's life. Experts have warned that by converting food crop to fuel, we run the risk of further reduce of food supply which is already very tight. I guess we might be reaching the tipping point where everything should unwind accordingly.
High oil price -> Food price increase -> Hurt spending -> Reduce spending -> Correction
There are too much excess built up over the years, especially the liquidity and popularity of hedge fund these years. More derivative and more alternate investment were being sold to investor. Warren Buffett said derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.
Read this from The Edge, from the Bloomberg. Paul Touradji says a "buying orgy" in commodities had inflated prices and increased risks of a collapse. "Commodities have never been, are not now and will never be a 'safe haven'".
I think we just have to embrace the risk created by these excess.
Sunday, 30 March 2008
Wednesday, 26 March 2008
Stock watch list Mar 08
It seems we are going to stay in the bear market for quite a while. There is really no reason to buy hastily, given that more bad news might be in the pipeline. Having said that, I would think at the current valuation, all are cheap. So, would use the index as a guide for the buying. Once index drop around 2700-2800 range, might buy some to keep. After that, pray for the next 3 years. Because the business environment change so fast. Today's hot sector might lose money in the next 6 months.
Counters in my watch list remained pretty the same.
Hongguo
China Hongxing
MIDAS
Sino Env
Guangzhao IFB
Swiber
FJ Benjamin
Synear temporary drop out of the list until the business is showing improvement. Sino techfibre is removed on oil price concern and weak apetitite towards fibre stock.
Tempted to add Ezra into the list, as it has fallen to quite attractive price. But, I have to spend sometime to think about it. China New Town has been beaten down so badly, which is attractive on the future outlook.
Counters in my watch list remained pretty the same.
Hongguo
China Hongxing
MIDAS
Sino Env
Guangzhao IFB
Swiber
FJ Benjamin
Synear temporary drop out of the list until the business is showing improvement. Sino techfibre is removed on oil price concern and weak apetitite towards fibre stock.
Tempted to add Ezra into the list, as it has fallen to quite attractive price. But, I have to spend sometime to think about it. China New Town has been beaten down so badly, which is attractive on the future outlook.
China shoe maker sale
Today DBS Vicker issued the following report.
Attractive Value Emerging For SChip Shoe Brands
S-Chip Sports Shoes plays have slipped more than their HK counterparts. China Hongxing and China Sports International have lost 59% and 55% of their share value respectively from their respective peaks over the last 12 months. This is in contrast to HK peers such as Li Ning, Anta Sports and Dongxiang, which have seen their share price decline by between 29% and 50% from their peaks. In terms of valuations, China Hongxing and China Sports International are trading at 15x and 7x FY08 earnings respectively compared to HK peers that are trading at 18x – 30x FY08 PER.
Hongguo has performed relatively in-line with HK peers. Hongguo’s share price has fallen by about 64% from its peak, compared to 62% for Prime Success and 47% for Belle. In terms of valuations, Hongguo is trading at c. 8x FY08 PER, versus 13x FY08 for Prime Success and 23x for Belle.
Growth remains intact whilst valuations are now much more attractive for S-Chip Shoe Brands. We continue to be positive on the consumer goods sector in China, especially for companies with strong branding power, such as China Hongxing and Hongguo, which are able to raise their prices to pass on higher material and labour costs. Latest figures also show that retail sales in China in the month of February grew by 20.2% yoy, continuing the strong double-digit growth momentum over the last few years. In the meantime, valuations for the S-Chip shoe brands have become very attractive, trading at single digit to low teens current PERs, compared to more than double of that 6 months ago and relative to EPS CAGR of 20% or more for the sector
Target prices adjusted and BUY calls re-iterated. We maintain our BUY call for China Hongxing, with target price adjusted to S$0.90 based on 18x FY09 earnings. We have also included our Nanjing store visit notes in our update piece for China Hongxing. For China Sports, we have adjusted our target price to S$1.77, based on 10x FY09 PER and also maintain our BUY recommendation for this stock. For Hongguo, our target price is adjusted to S$0.94, based on 12x FY09 earnings and our update note also talks about a recent visit to their stores in
Nanjing.
>> For the past few years, the shoe makers have been growing pretty well. China Hongxing is expanding at a fast pace, Hongguo is slow and steady and China Sport is the new kid on the block. I am still very confident in the China consumer sector, especially the shoes. Unlikely the food sector, they seems to enjoy better pricing power and growth. I always like the lady shoe market, if you look at how many pairs of shoe a woman would buy a year. Surprisingly, sport shoe is even hotter.
It is yet to be seen the recent inflation would hit the consumer on shoe buying. But, consider long term, I would think they might be the best bet.
Attractive Value Emerging For SChip Shoe Brands
S-Chip Sports Shoes plays have slipped more than their HK counterparts. China Hongxing and China Sports International have lost 59% and 55% of their share value respectively from their respective peaks over the last 12 months. This is in contrast to HK peers such as Li Ning, Anta Sports and Dongxiang, which have seen their share price decline by between 29% and 50% from their peaks. In terms of valuations, China Hongxing and China Sports International are trading at 15x and 7x FY08 earnings respectively compared to HK peers that are trading at 18x – 30x FY08 PER.
Hongguo has performed relatively in-line with HK peers. Hongguo’s share price has fallen by about 64% from its peak, compared to 62% for Prime Success and 47% for Belle. In terms of valuations, Hongguo is trading at c. 8x FY08 PER, versus 13x FY08 for Prime Success and 23x for Belle.
Growth remains intact whilst valuations are now much more attractive for S-Chip Shoe Brands. We continue to be positive on the consumer goods sector in China, especially for companies with strong branding power, such as China Hongxing and Hongguo, which are able to raise their prices to pass on higher material and labour costs. Latest figures also show that retail sales in China in the month of February grew by 20.2% yoy, continuing the strong double-digit growth momentum over the last few years. In the meantime, valuations for the S-Chip shoe brands have become very attractive, trading at single digit to low teens current PERs, compared to more than double of that 6 months ago and relative to EPS CAGR of 20% or more for the sector
Target prices adjusted and BUY calls re-iterated. We maintain our BUY call for China Hongxing, with target price adjusted to S$0.90 based on 18x FY09 earnings. We have also included our Nanjing store visit notes in our update piece for China Hongxing. For China Sports, we have adjusted our target price to S$1.77, based on 10x FY09 PER and also maintain our BUY recommendation for this stock. For Hongguo, our target price is adjusted to S$0.94, based on 12x FY09 earnings and our update note also talks about a recent visit to their stores in
Nanjing.
>> For the past few years, the shoe makers have been growing pretty well. China Hongxing is expanding at a fast pace, Hongguo is slow and steady and China Sport is the new kid on the block. I am still very confident in the China consumer sector, especially the shoes. Unlikely the food sector, they seems to enjoy better pricing power and growth. I always like the lady shoe market, if you look at how many pairs of shoe a woman would buy a year. Surprisingly, sport shoe is even hotter.
It is yet to be seen the recent inflation would hit the consumer on shoe buying. But, consider long term, I would think they might be the best bet.
Monday, 24 March 2008
Company update – Creative, China Energy, Bio-Treat
Creative issued a profit warning cited reasons like weakening of US dollar. I suspect the MP3 business continue to weaken. The market is obviously saturated now as whoever wants to own a MP3 player would have got his/her by now. Almost all the new cell phone is playing MP3 very well. So, who needs a MP3 player? I have been long avoiding technology company, because of the volatile business and often supply demand mismatch.
China Energy said it engaged the PWC to conduct review on the additional payment for acquiring Jiutai Energy (Guangzhou) Co. Ltd. Where does the 190m RMB have gone? Management offered some explanation, but I don't think anybody is listening. When a third party is called into action, people assume the worst case, sell first. Especially at the current choppy time, there is no way to go but down.
Bio-Treat is on the news again. This time on the ability to redeem S$206 million of bonds. Merrill Lynch maintained the sell call on the counter as there are few issues hanging in the air. Since I sold off the counter, it did surge a bit, but to give back the gain now. I always think if there are issues with the management, it create uncertainty and it is best to sell.
China Energy said it engaged the PWC to conduct review on the additional payment for acquiring Jiutai Energy (Guangzhou) Co. Ltd. Where does the 190m RMB have gone? Management offered some explanation, but I don't think anybody is listening. When a third party is called into action, people assume the worst case, sell first. Especially at the current choppy time, there is no way to go but down.
Bio-Treat is on the news again. This time on the ability to redeem S$206 million of bonds. Merrill Lynch maintained the sell call on the counter as there are few issues hanging in the air. Since I sold off the counter, it did surge a bit, but to give back the gain now. I always think if there are issues with the management, it create uncertainty and it is best to sell.
Sunday, 23 March 2008
Commodity boom – the party ended
The week ended with FED cutting target lending rate. As a result, US dollar gain against Euro dollar or Japanese Yen. The rate cut plus early measure to promote lending has resulted in dollar's strength. Currently, the key problems are credit crunch, write down and economy slowdown/recession. The main aim now is to restore market confidence.
On the other hand, commodities suffered big fall. All commodities – Oil, Gold, Soft commodities, all coming down. As gold is inversely correlated to US dollar, dollar advanced means gold falling. Generally, the falling commodities price could be due to
1.Hedge fund selling. Prudent to take profit as price is at historical high and pay back the borrowed money. The profit could be used to compensate other investment loss.
2.Global demand would soften due to the current crisis.
The recent equity market condition forced the speculators to switch attention to commodities. The higher commodities price, the higher chance of us heading into recession. As the outlook uncertainty increases, these people also start to unwind the position. I would think the recent high price is mainly due to speculation, than the real demand. Let's pray the price to drop further. Most people would suffer from this great run, except the speculators and farmer.
Although the portfolio strategist argued that commodity investment should/could be part of
a diversified investment portfolio. But, any party would come to an end. Buying at or near peak is not a wise thing to do. If it come down to a more logical level, might want to allocate some money in commodities sector.
At current time, maybe the bond should do well. As US bond is the safe heaven during uncertain time and the interest rate is going to come down.
On the other hand, commodities suffered big fall. All commodities – Oil, Gold, Soft commodities, all coming down. As gold is inversely correlated to US dollar, dollar advanced means gold falling. Generally, the falling commodities price could be due to
1.Hedge fund selling. Prudent to take profit as price is at historical high and pay back the borrowed money. The profit could be used to compensate other investment loss.
2.Global demand would soften due to the current crisis.
The recent equity market condition forced the speculators to switch attention to commodities. The higher commodities price, the higher chance of us heading into recession. As the outlook uncertainty increases, these people also start to unwind the position. I would think the recent high price is mainly due to speculation, than the real demand. Let's pray the price to drop further. Most people would suffer from this great run, except the speculators and farmer.
Although the portfolio strategist argued that commodity investment should/could be part of
a diversified investment portfolio. But, any party would come to an end. Buying at or near peak is not a wise thing to do. If it come down to a more logical level, might want to allocate some money in commodities sector.
At current time, maybe the bond should do well. As US bond is the safe heaven during uncertain time and the interest rate is going to come down.
Sunday, 16 March 2008
The sweet tooth - China Lifestyle FY07 result
Sales +23.5%
Cost of sales +24.9%
Gross profit +21.2%
Profit before tax +10.5% (Significant increase of administrative and finance expense)
Profit after tax +3.5% (Income tax +32%)
Borrowing at 20,000K
ROE at 18.9% (86,741/458,589)
From cashflow statement (figure in '000),
Profit increased from 83,839 to 86,741, but operating cashflow increased from 125,314 to 145,217. This is due to a few adjustments. But the core profit cashflow didn't increase significantly. Where does the cash from adjustment came from?
Net cash go from 200,578 to 48,088 due to purchase of property, plant and equipment. Still able to cover the borrowing.
EPS decreased to 0.17 RMB from 0.19 RMB. Profit increased slightly but there is dilutive impact from the share option.
Although the sales increased significant, but the cost increase is even greater. Big increase at advertising and promotion expense and there are significant items like exchange loss and disposal on property, plant and equipment(quoted as one off item). Constraint on jelly dessert sales, and significant jump on candy sales. Gross profit margin 39.2% and the raw material price increase remain challenging.
FY07 probably is a consolidation year where they build the brand name, expand production capability and lay the foundation for future growth. Management expect new production facility to ease constraint and more product choice to drive more earning growth. I thought this is a disappointing result where cost increased faster than sales and I don't understand why the core profit cashflow only increased marginally. Given the continue rising of raw material price and uncertain advertising effect, best is to avoid for now.
Cost of sales +24.9%
Gross profit +21.2%
Profit before tax +10.5% (Significant increase of administrative and finance expense)
Profit after tax +3.5% (Income tax +32%)
Borrowing at 20,000K
ROE at 18.9% (86,741/458,589)
From cashflow statement (figure in '000),
Profit increased from 83,839 to 86,741, but operating cashflow increased from 125,314 to 145,217. This is due to a few adjustments. But the core profit cashflow didn't increase significantly. Where does the cash from adjustment came from?
Net cash go from 200,578 to 48,088 due to purchase of property, plant and equipment. Still able to cover the borrowing.
EPS decreased to 0.17 RMB from 0.19 RMB. Profit increased slightly but there is dilutive impact from the share option.
Although the sales increased significant, but the cost increase is even greater. Big increase at advertising and promotion expense and there are significant items like exchange loss and disposal on property, plant and equipment(quoted as one off item). Constraint on jelly dessert sales, and significant jump on candy sales. Gross profit margin 39.2% and the raw material price increase remain challenging.
FY07 probably is a consolidation year where they build the brand name, expand production capability and lay the foundation for future growth. Management expect new production facility to ease constraint and more product choice to drive more earning growth. I thought this is a disappointing result where cost increased faster than sales and I don't understand why the core profit cashflow only increased marginally. Given the continue rising of raw material price and uncertain advertising effect, best is to avoid for now.
Strong cotton - Hongwei Technologies FY07 result
Revenue +41.1%
Cost of sales +39.6%
Profit after tax +30.2% (+163.8% of income tax)
Bank loan 45,000K
Cash generated +21.3%
Cash at end of year 130,840K (should be enough to cover loan)
EPS RMB 0.2889 +14% (dilutive effect of share placement)
For FY07, they issued new share to fund the expansion. As the factory is still under construction, there is a dilutive impact to the EPS. Synthetic cotton was the star performer. Gross profit margin increased to 30% from 29%. This is remarkable since the oil price has increased substantially. The new factory for synthetic cotton would be ready in second quarter of 2008, they expect the gross margin to improve.
This is generally a good result as revenue rise strongly and they manage to keep the cost down. Since the new production capability is going to come online soon, it would enhance the profitability. What I afraid is the margin erosion as oil price keep charging ahead. I think this is the major reason for the share price to under perform for so long. All the fiber related stock is trading at great discount. Assume they are able to increase EPS by 10% next year, which in my opinion should be achievable, the EPS would be 0.3178 RMB. At current price of 0.28, it is only trading at forward PE of 4.4 which I think is cheap in any measure. However, consider on the company size and uncertain oil price, it is not clear where it would go. If you are a deep value investor, this is a buy, otherwise a hold.
Cost of sales +39.6%
Profit after tax +30.2% (+163.8% of income tax)
Bank loan 45,000K
Cash generated +21.3%
Cash at end of year 130,840K (should be enough to cover loan)
EPS RMB 0.2889 +14% (dilutive effect of share placement)
For FY07, they issued new share to fund the expansion. As the factory is still under construction, there is a dilutive impact to the EPS. Synthetic cotton was the star performer. Gross profit margin increased to 30% from 29%. This is remarkable since the oil price has increased substantially. The new factory for synthetic cotton would be ready in second quarter of 2008, they expect the gross margin to improve.
This is generally a good result as revenue rise strongly and they manage to keep the cost down. Since the new production capability is going to come online soon, it would enhance the profitability. What I afraid is the margin erosion as oil price keep charging ahead. I think this is the major reason for the share price to under perform for so long. All the fiber related stock is trading at great discount. Assume they are able to increase EPS by 10% next year, which in my opinion should be achievable, the EPS would be 0.3178 RMB. At current price of 0.28, it is only trading at forward PE of 4.4 which I think is cheap in any measure. However, consider on the company size and uncertain oil price, it is not clear where it would go. If you are a deep value investor, this is a buy, otherwise a hold.
Beat the CPF investment restriction deadline
1 April 2008 is coming very soon. After this date, the first 20k in CPF-OA and SA won't be available for investment purpose anymore. So, who ever interested to invest would have to act now before it is too late.
However, invest in this uncertain time needs some courage. Although we said it is better to buy when it is cheap than it is expensive. But the human psychology would make it a difficult task. On the investor mind, cheap could go cheaper. However, how often can you catch the bottom? Spread out the investment amount would be a good idea to prevent the difficult market timing job.
Online fund distributor fundsupermart is running a promotion now on some fixed income fund at zero sales charge. The message is if you are planning to invest CPF money in equity fund sometime later, you can park the money in fixed income fund now and switch later. Since they offer zero sales charge and free switching, so the only risk is fluctuation of the bond prices and interest rate. It is worth the risk if you think you are able to somehow catch “the bottom”.
One of the fund under promotion is AIGIF Singapore Bond Fund which has won some fund awards. The fund is down 4.36% on 3 months basis. This is quite unusual, consider other bond fund is holding up well. So, I did a further check. In the fund top 10 holdings, there are Capitalmall Trust and A-REIT. I think that might explain the loss, as REIT is being sold down in the recent market turmoil. Even fixed income fund is not without its own risk.
At the same time, DollarDex also highlighted 3 of their fixed income fund is on zero percent sales charge. I think they are trying to capture the business from people want to park the money in fixed income fund first.
However, invest in this uncertain time needs some courage. Although we said it is better to buy when it is cheap than it is expensive. But the human psychology would make it a difficult task. On the investor mind, cheap could go cheaper. However, how often can you catch the bottom? Spread out the investment amount would be a good idea to prevent the difficult market timing job.
Online fund distributor fundsupermart is running a promotion now on some fixed income fund at zero sales charge. The message is if you are planning to invest CPF money in equity fund sometime later, you can park the money in fixed income fund now and switch later. Since they offer zero sales charge and free switching, so the only risk is fluctuation of the bond prices and interest rate. It is worth the risk if you think you are able to somehow catch “the bottom”.
One of the fund under promotion is AIGIF Singapore Bond Fund which has won some fund awards. The fund is down 4.36% on 3 months basis. This is quite unusual, consider other bond fund is holding up well. So, I did a further check. In the fund top 10 holdings, there are Capitalmall Trust and A-REIT. I think that might explain the loss, as REIT is being sold down in the recent market turmoil. Even fixed income fund is not without its own risk.
At the same time, DollarDex also highlighted 3 of their fixed income fund is on zero percent sales charge. I think they are trying to capture the business from people want to park the money in fixed income fund first.
Thursday, 13 March 2008
Any rally should be short lived
It is still ugly, judging from the news flow.
More default
Unwinding of yen carry trade
Sliding US dollar
Surging gold and oil price
Inflation worry or stagflation worry
For the deep pocket, can still buy selectively. But for the already vested more than 50%, don't think it is good time to catch the bottom. Think would just wait and wait, till all the bad news are out (although nobody could tell exactly when). Have a time horizon of 2-3 years and prepare to hold the strong companies till then.
More default
Unwinding of yen carry trade
Sliding US dollar
Surging gold and oil price
Inflation worry or stagflation worry
For the deep pocket, can still buy selectively. But for the already vested more than 50%, don't think it is good time to catch the bottom. Think would just wait and wait, till all the bad news are out (although nobody could tell exactly when). Have a time horizon of 2-3 years and prepare to hold the strong companies till then.
Monday, 10 March 2008
MIDAS FY07 result
Revenue +34%
Cost of sales +35.1% (inline with the revenue growth)
Profit after tax +24.8% (income tax increased)
Borrowing +11.9% to 15,413k
Operating cashflow +22.6%
Cash at end of year 51,666k (more than enough to cover borrowing)
EPS +18.9% to 3.78 cents
NAV 22cents
Gross Profit margin 32.1%
Profit margin and revenue growth remained impressive, but the mild EPS growth might explain the stock de-rating. In general, I would consider this to be a good result. As they secure more train projects, and if the cost remain under control, we might see faster growth in coming years. They managed to secure both local and overseas project, should be a testimony to their ability. Especially the product is awarded “2007 China's Top Brand”. Subsidiary NPRT and cooperation with Chinalco should keep growing.
Given today's closing price of 0.845. The historical PE is 22. Insider buying should give the share price some support. China railway outlook still remain robust. With current down beat environment and relatively high valuation (although cheap compare to HK listed peers), prefer to hold first.
Cost of sales +35.1% (inline with the revenue growth)
Profit after tax +24.8% (income tax increased)
Borrowing +11.9% to 15,413k
Operating cashflow +22.6%
Cash at end of year 51,666k (more than enough to cover borrowing)
EPS +18.9% to 3.78 cents
NAV 22cents
Gross Profit margin 32.1%
Profit margin and revenue growth remained impressive, but the mild EPS growth might explain the stock de-rating. In general, I would consider this to be a good result. As they secure more train projects, and if the cost remain under control, we might see faster growth in coming years. They managed to secure both local and overseas project, should be a testimony to their ability. Especially the product is awarded “2007 China's Top Brand”. Subsidiary NPRT and cooperation with Chinalco should keep growing.
Given today's closing price of 0.845. The historical PE is 22. Insider buying should give the share price some support. China railway outlook still remain robust. With current down beat environment and relatively high valuation (although cheap compare to HK listed peers), prefer to hold first.
Friday, 7 March 2008
Stock market sell off continues
This week I was quite busy again. No time to continue on some stock analysis work. No time to actually look at the market. I didn't expect the situation to turn better, and it did so. In fact, it is getting a little bit out of hand. Continuous bad news flow (more mortgage default), less than stellar earning (even good earning also get battled down), constant broker downgrade and margin call sums up the week.
I haven't seen anything like that for quite a long time. If you throw a stone out now, most probably you would hit a single digit PE stock, which 6 months ago, people are eager to buy on any dip. As planned I didn't commit any fresh capital and the better picture didn't emerge.
When I look at the source of problem, I would think these are the following:
1. Excessive borrowing in US. US has borrowed so much money from the world, the wall street has engineered so many creative financial product to fatten the investment banker wallet. When the situation unwind, it is like something never see before
2. Strong emerging market demand. Both soft, hard commodities had the great bull run. Wheat, corn, soya, oil palm, crude oil. What ever you name, all goes up. The demand isn't slowing, because the Asia government is subsiding the people. As people didn't feel the pinch, they haven't cut back the consumption. The mushrooming of hedge fund and promotion of commodity investment these year also to be blamed for the situation. Food is to be consumed not to be invested (Of course, your adviser would tell you otherwise)
3. Over optimistic euphoria and your trend following analyst. When the party is on, everybody is so engrossed in it and everything is expensive. Expensive in the sense that we are at multi year high. Although theoretically stock grow at 20% a year should be able to command PE of 20. We got a fair valuation which not enough to protect us on the downside. The human instinct of afraid of missing the boat con people (include me) to make purchase. Although looking at 3-5 years horizon, I am not afraid at all. Analyst who shouted so high valuation, where are you now? You are busy downgrading. You follow the trend and adjust your valuation, by attaching high valuation on bull and low on bear. The call intensify the market swing.
All in all, nobody is absolutely right or wrong. You are your money's master, you decide what is the best for it. Although it could go down further, I would say at this kind of depressed valuation, the risk should be lower. But, remember no low is too low, and no high is too high.
I haven't seen anything like that for quite a long time. If you throw a stone out now, most probably you would hit a single digit PE stock, which 6 months ago, people are eager to buy on any dip. As planned I didn't commit any fresh capital and the better picture didn't emerge.
When I look at the source of problem, I would think these are the following:
1. Excessive borrowing in US. US has borrowed so much money from the world, the wall street has engineered so many creative financial product to fatten the investment banker wallet. When the situation unwind, it is like something never see before
2. Strong emerging market demand. Both soft, hard commodities had the great bull run. Wheat, corn, soya, oil palm, crude oil. What ever you name, all goes up. The demand isn't slowing, because the Asia government is subsiding the people. As people didn't feel the pinch, they haven't cut back the consumption. The mushrooming of hedge fund and promotion of commodity investment these year also to be blamed for the situation. Food is to be consumed not to be invested (Of course, your adviser would tell you otherwise)
3. Over optimistic euphoria and your trend following analyst. When the party is on, everybody is so engrossed in it and everything is expensive. Expensive in the sense that we are at multi year high. Although theoretically stock grow at 20% a year should be able to command PE of 20. We got a fair valuation which not enough to protect us on the downside. The human instinct of afraid of missing the boat con people (include me) to make purchase. Although looking at 3-5 years horizon, I am not afraid at all. Analyst who shouted so high valuation, where are you now? You are busy downgrading. You follow the trend and adjust your valuation, by attaching high valuation on bull and low on bear. The call intensify the market swing.
All in all, nobody is absolutely right or wrong. You are your money's master, you decide what is the best for it. Although it could go down further, I would say at this kind of depressed valuation, the risk should be lower. But, remember no low is too low, and no high is too high.
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