Saturday, 20 October 2007

Stock price vs oil price

I always thought that high oil price is not good for stock price. However, during my conversation with a friend, it is noted that although the oil price keep increasing through these years, stock price actually keep going up. This prompt me to search on the web whether there is a relationship between both of them.

After reading many articles, generally this perception is true. When oil price increases, it would cause consumer more dollars for the petrol, at the same time logistic cost for all the daily goods also goes up. Therefore it would affect the stock price as it might slow the demand and increase business cost.

However, this relationship is not so straightforward. Another guy argues that when consumer demand pick up, factories increase production. They need fuel and labour. More jobs mean more people would have the spending power and they also consume more oil. So, oil demand increases with consumer demand. The only concern is whether the cost would be big enough to affect the consumer negatively.

I feel that there is no outright relationship between both of them. As we go through different part of economy cycle, as long as consumer can spend, the company earning should keep going up. To a stock picker, this should not be too much concern to you too. Focus on the company competitive advantage in accessing the situation. Oil price does not affect every company. The petrol price might keep increasing, but people still drink coke everyday!

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