Last Friday, Dow dropped another 100 plus points. The bad news is one after another. After the strong rebound last year, we are hitting the first speed bump. No one could tell how the market will play out.
1. China cramp down on property speculation. Although in the short term, this has dragged down the market performance, but it is an essential step for China to prevent the price bubble. Some might argue it is already in the bubble stage. I don't think China government want to kill the growth and market. We just need to cool it down.
2. Greece chaos. It will take sometime for them to find the solution, instead of dragging on the problem
3. Dow plunging 1000 points. Common sense tells us, if the situation is too extreme, it might not be true. Be it computer error or human error. Although confidence shaken, market will take sometime to recover.
China problem is unlikely to slow down the whole economy, as the authority doesn't want to kill the growth. The Europe problem takes time to sort itself out. In the mean time, market will keep sliding, I guess. The long awaiting opportunity has come, I hope you have spare cash.
I don't think the double dip is going to come, unless the Greece debt problem has contagiously spread to debt market. Even that is true, I doubt the magnitude will be the same like sub prime crisis. For the value investor, time has come to pick up great stock selling at cheap price. Investor should focus on stock with bright industry prospect, cheap valuation and strong balance sheet. When situation improved, stock will move up again.
Sunday, 9 May 2010
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