Tuesday, 23 February 2010

What is market direction?

Reporting season is in focus now. As we can see, the result didn't disappoint, it is sort of confirm that we have indeed turn a corner. Even the Greece news failed to trigger more downside. Of course, the risks are still there. But I sort of feel that, the liquidity out there is huge, still searching for value from every drop.

We are not sure how Europe problem will turn out, but I am kind of optimistic still. Waiting for the occasional bigger pull back to buy my favourite stock.

Thursday, 4 February 2010

My Feb view

Expect the unexpected, I guess all the investor should aware of this. Just like we are roaring ahead with the new year. Obama's proposal to regulate US banks and potential China tightening have brought the long overdue correction.

The once high flying IndoAgri food and Wilmar crash back to earth from recent high. Second and third liner are even worst. The position that I have built slowly over the past few months is like back to square, some gain, some loss. However, I remain optimistic, regardless of the fear and rumour around.

This is going to be Asia golden era, at least for the next 10 years, this is the place where the growth will be. US consumer will not recover just yet, until they build up the saving and correct the excess. Asia governments will continue to stimulate the domestic consumption to counter the decline of export sector.

I continue to like China consumer play, but I will not go into stock like China Hongxing until there is clear sign of trend reversal. I bought the stock which continue to grow despite the downturn. I think it is ok to pay a little bit for the quality and spread the buying through a few months period. Whenever there is a market weakness, buy a bit. We have yet to see the bull market go into overdrive. So, those with holding power can afford to wait.

China should still be the centre of growth. Focus on those China stock which have only domestic market exposure and unlikely to be affected by the macro economic outlook. The offshore sector also looks good to me, since the oil price is back to $70 which should support the exploration activities. Another theme which worth a look is Singapore property and tourism revival. As Singapore transformed into new playground for the rich, the demand for property and luxury goods will increase. Time will tell whether I am right.