What to buy?

This is a lazy afternoon, sitting in front of the computer, just want to let my mind be empty. However, read some blog entries, this trigger me to write something.

The market remain uncertain as the economy data is not so rosy. In view of US QE2 measure and the general comment I read every where, I am confident next year will be a good year for stock. I suspect more hot money will flow to Asia seeking for return. So, the usual candidate will be Asia consumption stock.

Here are some stocks that I will buy if the price is right

Wilmar - Big cap is not usually my cup of tea. However, I found my style to shift as I gain more experience in stock market. Being burnt by few stock, I supposed I am wiser now. Wilmar remain the stock in my watch list because of the China factor. It's cooking oil business is doing well in China. The previous quarter result is disappointing because of wrong timing. More importantly, Kouk said it is a good company but a bit high already. So, I guess I won't make my move yet, waiting for more price weakness. Reasons to buy: market leader in cooking oil, going into rice and flour business and new sugar business.

China Animal - I never truly understand the business. It sounds contradicting that why buy into the company if you are not truly understand the business itself. My thought is you don't really understand the business unless you are in the company or in same line of business. The company has shown promise on new acquisition, high barrier of entry and good ROE. If thing turns out like what analyst predicted, it should worth a lot more than currently.

Eratat - It is my favourite now mainly from valuation point of view. If thing turns out more promising, there are few catalyst that could make the price rocket - low valuation, continuous market share gain and higher ASP. When the market feel more excited about the company, there is room for further re-rating and hence more upside potential. The negative side of this business is the cash hasn't come in yet - negative cashflow

China Mobile (ADR) - You can either buy Hong Kong stock or buy the ADR listed on SGX. The reason is pretty obvious. Trading at PE of 12-14, having dividend yield of 4% and dominant position in China market. It is reasonable priced and have good growth potential for the long term.

I will stop here. There are still quite a number of stock I monitor and might go into if the risk reward ratio is attractive. But it will be too long to list down one by one.

Eratat promising turn around and low valuation

Eratat has just released the Q2 result. A quick scan on the financial statement:

For 6 months result,
Gross profit +3.3%
Because of reduced in expenses, Operating profit increased 23.4%
Trade receivable is quite high at 347,747 because of lengthen credit term
Current liabilities 130,968
Cash and bank balance 131,936

Margin improvement +2.8% for 6 months
Operating cash flow at 99,189
But because of the high trade receivable, it registered a cash outflow

EPS is 17.16 RMB cts (3.31 SGD cts)

In the cut throat China sports wear market, Hongxing has suffered a lot. Eratat is moving away to lifestyle fashion sector. How successful it is, remain to be seen. However, this set of result is quite promising. There are few important points

- Margin increased
- ASP increased
- Profit growth

The negative part

- Higher receivable days
- Cash outflow (company earn money but no cash comes in)

The management may be smart in changing the direction of business, and on the surface, they might just have succeeded in doing so. However, challenges abound. Management is looking forward for better time ahead.

The risk is still there, especially there is no cash coming into the company. Distributors still haven't pay back the money. Comparing the cash balance and current liabilities, company should have enough cash to pay the liabilities until real cash flowing in.

The valuation is low. Without considering the seasonality, if you just double the half year EPS, we are looking at whole year earning of 6.62 cts. Last Friday closing price was 0.205 and it is trading at forward PE of 3. That is super cheap.