I did some quick sum on the hongguo de-listing offer.
The cash per share is roughly 0.13. For the past 9 months, the EPS is 13.1 RMB cts. So, this year, the company might be able to earn 16 RMB cts which is 3.29 SGD cts. With the offer price of 0.439, the offer PE will be 13.3 which is a good offer. Good in the sense that for past two years, the company has been trading at lower PE.
In the Q3 result, profit margin was down to 35.2% reflecting the tough business environment. This might be a good offer depends on your entry price. Most likely they will seek some professional advise for the shareholder.
Saturday, 23 January 2010
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Major shareholder of Hongguo announce delisting offer
After trading halt for a few days, Hongguo major shareholder has announced the voluntary delisting offer at 0.439. At the first glance, this is a bad offer for me. I will review and update my comment later on. Offer at 0.439 is good for those hold the company since IPO. In a way, it also says the company is worth more than the current price.
Tuesday, 12 January 2010
China Sports Intl stir up the interest
China Sports has announced the win of master distributorship of FIFA football lifestyle clothing and accessories. This look like a significant win, analyst quickly upgraded the stock. The interest is high and stock price move swiftly. FIFA is a significant brand, this signal the intention and capability of the company
At the sametime, this has a spill over effect on China Hongxing too. Hongxing up with large volume. Recently the market focus on mid and small cap. Especially the forgotten S-Chip with story like dual listing and privatization coming out. These are just speculation, but it helps to normalise the valuation of the stock. The depressed price offer a good opportunity to investor, but on the other hand, not attractive for company to raise capital.
The bull market has moved to second phase, where interest focus on mid and small cap. Once the interest is changed to junk stock, you know it is time to sell out, waiting for correction.
At the sametime, this has a spill over effect on China Hongxing too. Hongxing up with large volume. Recently the market focus on mid and small cap. Especially the forgotten S-Chip with story like dual listing and privatization coming out. These are just speculation, but it helps to normalise the valuation of the stock. The depressed price offer a good opportunity to investor, but on the other hand, not attractive for company to raise capital.
The bull market has moved to second phase, where interest focus on mid and small cap. Once the interest is changed to junk stock, you know it is time to sell out, waiting for correction.
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
My quick review on 2009
Year 2009 was a meaningful year for Singapore stock market. In the first 3 months of the year, market continue to drift lower. Basically, I was not in the market at all, watching from the sideline, hoping to see the light at the end of tunnel. Nobody knows, stock market took a dramatic turn since Mar and has never look back.
I missed the chance to make some sure win money. However, like I say always, nobody can foresee the top and bottom. It might be better to wait for definite signal of turn around. Beside that, bull market would not move in straight line. Investors have many chance to get back into the game. The continuous strength of stock market surprised many people. This was supported by steady stream of good news.
Since September, I am back in the game, bought some counters that could offer further upside when economy growth returns. Despite the China stock market has gone up substantially, S-chips are still being ignored by investor. Many small cap stocks are simply not in the investor's radar. I bought into Hsu Fu Chi which turn in very good result despite weak consumer spending. The stock is no longer cheap in PE terms. This also shows market pay premium to good performing company.
The property market in 2009 surprises me and many property stocks have recovered since then. Going into 2010, I believe in what analyst said, the high end segment is going to do well when IR open. Thus, Ho Bee is my choice. It has exposure to Sentosa Cove, joint venture plan with Yanlord in China and good cost control.
Oil and exploration market also spring back to life, as oil companies increase the offshore activities. Swiber coming from the low base, having remain subdue for a whole year, finally wake up as more contracts are being awarded. The stock might trend higher as each contract announcement unfold.
Caveat to investor. 2010 has more surprises in store for us. Prepare to sell when valuation has gone too far. However, the liquidity built up over the past two years might keep pushing the stocks higher, until a tipping point where significant correction would set in.
I missed the chance to make some sure win money. However, like I say always, nobody can foresee the top and bottom. It might be better to wait for definite signal of turn around. Beside that, bull market would not move in straight line. Investors have many chance to get back into the game. The continuous strength of stock market surprised many people. This was supported by steady stream of good news.
Since September, I am back in the game, bought some counters that could offer further upside when economy growth returns. Despite the China stock market has gone up substantially, S-chips are still being ignored by investor. Many small cap stocks are simply not in the investor's radar. I bought into Hsu Fu Chi which turn in very good result despite weak consumer spending. The stock is no longer cheap in PE terms. This also shows market pay premium to good performing company.
The property market in 2009 surprises me and many property stocks have recovered since then. Going into 2010, I believe in what analyst said, the high end segment is going to do well when IR open. Thus, Ho Bee is my choice. It has exposure to Sentosa Cove, joint venture plan with Yanlord in China and good cost control.
Oil and exploration market also spring back to life, as oil companies increase the offshore activities. Swiber coming from the low base, having remain subdue for a whole year, finally wake up as more contracts are being awarded. The stock might trend higher as each contract announcement unfold.
Caveat to investor. 2010 has more surprises in store for us. Prepare to sell when valuation has gone too far. However, the liquidity built up over the past two years might keep pushing the stocks higher, until a tipping point where significant correction would set in.
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