Book: Yes, you can time the market

Over the weekend, I was reading the book "Yes, You can time the market" by Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth. It is quite an interesting book to read, especially the concept presented in the book. The authors are trying to prove that you can actually time the market, despite the conventional wisdom. Don't get it wrong. It is about time the market on long term basis, not short term.

The analysis presented is interesting. First, take the S&P 500 index as basis, chat the ratio like PE or dividend yield against its 15 years moving average. Using lump sum investment and dollar cost averaging approach, compare buying regardless of the market timing against buy the stock when particular point fall below the moving average. It shows market timing actually work(when buying the market, not individual stock).

I think the basic principal is quite obvious. Buying good stock is not enough, you have to buy it cheap enough, in order to enjoy good return on your capital. By combining the buy low and long term compounding strategy, it actually make more return than just buy and hold regardless of buying time.

FJ Benjamin FY09 full year result

Turnover -12%
Gross profit -15%
Rental +10%
Operating profit -65%

Net loss of 2,661 compare to profit 14,804 of previous year. Report highlight the underlying profit is 4,065 excluding the one off item and forex loss.

Fixed deposit 14,008
Cash on hand 19,346
Borrowing 53,505
Net borrowing is 20,151

Net cash from operating activities 21,781

Cash at end of FY is 14,823, after minus off the bank overdraft 18,531. I suppose the overdraft has been included in the current borrowing. The cashflow is a bit tight, after comparing the real cash on hand vs net borrowing. The group has to watch over the cost tightly. However, if the operating cashflow remain stable, it should be able to pay off the borrowing.

Although expenses come down together with the turnover, it is not enough to offset the impact. This highlight the difficult retail environment, luxury segment is not being spared. The result is uninspiring. Unless there is a clear indication of retail sentiment turn around, the business would remain challenging.

Genting Intl right issue

Those chasing hot stock should beware. The pattern is too common already. First, some news being released cause sharp run up of share price. The next moment, company announce share placement to raise more money. Many has done that to raise capital for growth or to prepare the tough time ahead.

Genting has debts to fund the expansion and new casino, but the cash hasn't roll in yet. In the analyst forecast, there are just too many assumption which when things go wrong, the share price could see sharp correction. But, human is animal of hope, only story could get people excited.

Weak Sep and Oct

Traditionally Sep and Oct are two weak months for equity. The situation took a turn at Mar, market trending upwards. The easy money has been made and I missed the boat. Never mind, the economy might recover some what. But, the old growth would no longer be back. American is not going to spend like last time and it would take a while for the next demand to come on stream.

I am looking at adding some equity position if the stock did pull back during month of Sep and Oct. The key thing to do well in this mini cycle should be riding on correct stock. Stock that is not exporting goods to US but meeting the demand locally or across Asia.